The Minute Details of Football Betting Odds

Despite the fact that an increasing level of how we perceive gambling has shifted toward straight percentages, traditional betting odds have remained the most popular ones. No, they aren’t the easiest to represent, but they convey the mindset behind every sportsbook.

Given that the global remote betting market has ballooned to a degree that it has become ubiquitous across much of the world, it’s interesting to see how it actually works. However, it’s always important to see how its mechanisms actually work for the average gambler, especially across different spaces.

In the end, minute details are the source of understanding that can help any bettor find the best value. In fact, one could say that the most important part is to know what anyone spends their money on if they choose to wager.

This article will touch upon the key aspects that can qualify in this way. Namely, we’ll settle some essential definitions, their usage across different markets, and also what they represent. We’ll do so through the lens of betting odds football because they represent the most popular and gambled-on sport in the world, for the sake of better referencing.

What are the betting odds at their core?

In the most direct of definitions, betting odds for any sport are numerical representations of probabilities for an outcome that can happen in a sport. It can be as simple as one of the winners during a certain event (a match), but also for a competition or a detail.

The purpose of a set of odds is to also serve as a payout formula. When a bettor places a stake, the value of the price will showcase how much they can win. As we will see, certain types have intrinsic aspects that reveal the total won amount (stake + surplus), while others are about the winnings themselves.

Another key detail to note in this definitive part is their importance in the overall space of football betting. They’re a way to understand an angle of perception for the favorites, especially based on the magnitude of differentiality.

Explaining the styles of odds on the market

As alluded to earlier, the odds that you see in any football betting market depend on where you’re from and the bookmaker that you’re using. Simply put, it’s a cultural aspect that has developed over the course of centuries, especially when track-day bookies were doing their best to hold and balance the numbers.

With that in mind, we should also mention that, nowadays, most platforms that work with odds provide them in all the mainstream ways. Most sportsbooks and odds comparison structures allow users to switch across styles, especially given that they can provide perspective across sports.

In association football, you’ll mostly see two of them. Let’s explain what we mean as we continue to showcase them:

• Decimal odds may be the most popular ones and are generally associated with the sport we’re discussing here. They also carry the name of continental odds and start with 1.00, which means 100% chances of winning. If you have a 2.50 price, for example, it will be a multiplier for your stake. Betting $10 on this set yields $25, which is the total that comes back: the bet and the profit. This style is most popular in Europe (hence the name) and much of the rest of the world.
• Fractional odds are interesting because they’re mostly associated with the UK. Their signature aspect is that, in the fraction that you see as odds, you get both the stake and the implied profit. The same example as above would be 3/2. In this case, your stake would be $2, and the profit would be $3, with $5 in total win. If you’d bet $34 at this set, you’d get $51 in profit and $85 as a total payout.
• Monyline odds are markedly different because they have both positive and negative prices. They’re the least likely to be associated with association football betting, but they are directly entrenched in American football, which is where this style comes from. Based on the probabilities we’ve used above, +150 odds on a $10 bet would also yield $25 in total cash, with the price graphically presenting just the profit structure.

They represent implied probabilities

We’ve used this concept a few times thus far, but now it’s time to clarify it. The purpose is to signify what exactly these odds represent in terms of actual chances, but why they aren’t perfect representations of what the bookmaker considers.

If we were to use the 2.50, +150 and 3/2 examples that we explained above, they yield the same profit because they have the same implied probability: 40%. However, the way they get there is a bit different.

• Decimals go with 1/(odds) → 1/2.50 → 0.4 x 100% → 40%.
• Fractionals require Denominator/(Denominator + Numerator) → 2/(2+3) → 2/5 → 0.4 x 100% → 40%.
• Moneylines require 100/(odds + 100) → 100/(150+100) → 100/250 → 0.4 x 100% → 40%.

Naturally, the closer an outcome is to 100%, the likelier it is. At the same time, you should put it into perspective for football since it’s a 3-result calculation.

Unlike tennis or basketball, where there is no tie, 40% implied probabilities can be the odds of a marginal favorite. If Team A has these chances, but the price for a draw is at 35% likelihood, then Team B is also in the 25% neighborhood, which makes it the actual underdog.

As we’ll see in the same section, the actual numbers will likely be different.

The vigorish/juice finalizes the worth

Let’s say that a club like Manchester City has 1.85 (54%) odds to win a match with Bournemouth, which has 4.00 (25%) chances. The draw here would be with a 3.13 price, at about 32% implied probabilities.

If you sum them up, you end up with 111% probabilities. Naturally, this doesn’t look anywhere close to right. What it actually means is that the bookmaker who set them shortened those odds, which decreases your theoretical payout.

This is the overround that, in colloquial betting language, is the juice, or vig/vigorish. Rather than taking a direct return per bet, it just adds this mechanism that slightly decreases your win potential.

Typically, bookmakers add this value to secure an edge, which means that you bet a bit more for a likelihood that should be a bit lower than the number indicated by the odds. To devig the price set forth by a bookie, you simply divide the implied probability of these chances by the total (111%, in our case).

• City’s 54% turn into 48%, with 2.05 actual odds.
• The draw would turn from 32% to 29%, with a 3.47 true set.
• Bournemouth decreases from 25% to around 23%, ending up with 4.44.

As you can see, the vig was asymmetrical, as the bigger the implied probability, the higher the vig, and the shorter the odds. In general, the juice is between 4% to 12% based on most data. This means that this example would be quite an unfair bookmaker.

If the gambler were to find one with better expected value, a vigged set of chances that ends at around 104% would require us to take the fair probabilities from above and multiply them by 104% (1.04).

• Manchester City’s new price would be 1.97.
• Drawing would come as 3.34.
• Bournemouth would be at 4.27.

Value bets based on the odds at hand

The type of bet that generates more value will always be the one in which a bettor places wagers on prices with a small vig. Since finding this value comes directly from the implied probability calculation, this should be a primary step in any quest.

If this mathematical jumble didn’t sound too convincing, the best way to explain it would be to showcase the difference in the size of your wins by making the same bet. Let’s presume that we use the same $10 stake across different odds.

The idea is simple: you leave money on the table if you go with a bookmaker that has a bigger vig. Value comes from choosing prices that are closest to how each gambler perceives the actual possibility of an outcome.

Final takeaway: Balance is their primary purpose

As closing words, we’d like to remind you of a simple principle: bookmakers do not gamble. It may sound a bit counterintuitive since, after all, the house pays you if you win, which means that it loses. It also means that it keeps your money if you aren’t correct.

What we mean is that it does not take chances by pulling in one direction. Instead, its interest is to find the perfect balance between the chances of each competitor. If you bet on a favorite, it pays less because it was a stronger possibility, while the underdog is the reverse.

Now, if it were to gamble, it would’ve probably banked on the favorite having as short a set of odds as reasonable, to make sure that it pays you as little as it can. Instead, what it does is try to set realistic and fair prices. The overround (vig) is where its edge comes from, especially when it secures it en gros.

For the bettor, it’s quite clear that gambling is the natural direction. If this is the case, we would recommend responsible betting for the sake of sustainable and safe entertainment!